South Africans expect job creation and moral leadership in the next five years – Survey

Photo by Gerhard Steenkamp

When president Zuma delivers his State of the Nation address to open the new parliament next week (17 June 2014), South Africans would like him to focus on the government’s plans for reducing unemployment and focus on job creation and to remind parliamentarians that voters expect them to show moral leadership.

These are the findings from the latest Ipsos Pulse of the People™ study.

After 20 years of democracy, unemployment is still the biggest issue

In the Ipsos Pulse of the People™ studies, a randomly selected cross-section of South Africans are asked to indicate their work status[1].  These figures are representative of the universe – i.e. adult South Africans.

According to the latest study, just more than a third (36%) of adult South Africans are working, either full time or part time, while a further third are unemployed and looking for work.

As June is “youth month,” it makes sense to look at the figures with regard to young people in more detail: a third (33%, about 2,782 million) are currently studying, however, almost half (48%) are unemployed and looking for work.  Youth employment is a problem in many parts of the world, but these figures indicate that it is particularly severe in South Africa and needs urgent attention and action.

Working statusTotal adult population

%

18-24 year olds

%

Working full-time 2910
Working part-time 74
Retired 11
Student 1033
Housewife 41
Unemployed – looking for work33 48
Unemployed – not looking for work 64

Looking at the evaluation of the performance of the government[2] on the issue of “reducing unemployment by creating jobs” about four in every ten (38%) said that the government was doing “very” or “fairly well” in handling this issue, while six in every ten (61%) said that the government was “not doing very well” or was “not at all doing well” in handling this issue.[3]

While unemployment in our country is severe, there is also a skills shortage, and just more than half (54%) of adult South Africans feel that the government is “addressing the educational needs of all South Africans”.  More than four in every ten (44%) say the government is “not handling this issue well.”[4]

In addition, 53% feel that “the education system in South Africa is failing the country’s children.” One in every five (20%) disagree with this statement. The quality and type of education thus needs serious attention to act as a possible way of addressing the issue of unemployment.[5]

Issues to be addressed in the next 5 years – the choice of voters

If we concentrate on the views of those South Africans who voted in the national election on 7 May 2014, they yield very clear results.  The questions were asked as follows:

“What are the most important issues or problems facing this country that the NEW government should address?”

As a follow-up question we asked:

“Which one of the issues that you just mentioned is the most important to you personally?”[6]

Issues Mentioned

%

Most important issue for the government to address

%

Unemployment/job creation/too few jobs9055
Crime/criminal activity608
Poverty599
Corruption, government officials not honest539
Development/industrial/providing infrastructure, water, electricity, roads, housing4710
Education/educational standards/equality in education383
Health/hospitals/clinics301
HIV/AIDS261
Land/Landlessness/land claims211
Brain drain/losing trained or skilled people131
Other12

With nine out of every ten voters(90%) saying that unemployment should be addressed and more than half (55%) choosing it as the most important issue, these results needed to be analysed in more detail – the following analysis is still based on those who voted on 7 May and not on all South Africans.[7]

  • Although all age groups mentioned unemployment as the biggest issues to be addressed, it is clear that it is of particular importance to young people.  Education is also more important to this group than to others:
18-24

%

25-34

%

35-49

%

50+

%

Unemployment/job creation/too few jobs61575848
Development/industrial/providing infrastructure, water, electricity, roads, housing81299
Poverty59812
Corruption, government officials not honest87912
Crime/criminal activity78711
Education7***

The addressing of unemployment is of particular importance to black voters:

Black

%

White

%

Coloured

%

Indian

%

Unemployment/job creation/too few jobs60325436
Development/industrial/providing infrastructure, water, electricity, roads, housing1165*
Poverty10665
Corruption, government officials not honest722820
Crime/criminal activity5201826
Education*766
Health/hospitals/clinics*5**
  • Unemployment is of particular importance in North West, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape – mentioned by more than six in every ten voters in these three provinces:
GP

%

WC

%

KZN

%

MP

%

FS

%

NW

%

LP

%

EC

%

NC

%

Unemployment/job creation/too few jobs515263565869594163
Development/industrial/providing infrastructure, water, electricity, roads, housing7*71881022910
Poverty10*6117851914
Corruption, government officials not honest119691351011
Crime/criminal activity9209*10**11*
Education*6*******
  • Although unemployment and job creation are high on the agenda of supporters of the three biggest political parties in the country, it is a special focus point for ANC supporters:
ANC

%

DA

%

EFF

%

Unemployment/job creation/too few jobs614153
Development/industrial/providing infrastructure, water, electricity, roads, housing11516
Poverty1165
Corruption, government officials not honest61813
Crime/criminal activity5186
Education*6*

Moral leadership and accountability

South African voters want their MP’s to be accountable and more than seven in every ten (73%) feel that “Members of Parliament should be fired for negligent spending”.  On the other hand, a very small proportion of 8% disagrees:

Voters

%

Strongly agree42
Agree31
Neither agree nor disagree19
Disagree5
Strongly disagree3

The same proportion of voters also feel that “The personal life of Members of Parliament should set an example to citizens”.

Voters

%

Strongly agree41
Agree32
Neither agree nor disagree19
Disagree5
Strongly disagree2
Don’t Know/refused1

The future

However, looking towards the future, only half (51%) of South African voters (regardless of the party they supported in the election) agreed with the following statement: “I have faith that the ANC will live up to their election promises”:

Voters

%

Strongly agree23
Agree28
Neither agree nor disagree25
Disagree10
Strongly disagree13
Don’t Know/refused1

Not surprisingly, ANC voters express the strongest support for the party, with two thirds of them (65%) saying that their party will live up to their election promises; 40% of EFF supporters believe this and only 15% of DA supporters.

The voters in Limpopo feel the strongest that the ANC will live up to their election promises, while voters in the Western Cape and the Northern Cape expect the least.  However, in all other provinces, only about half of voters expect delivery on election promises.

GP %WC %KZN %MP %FS %NW %LP %EC %NC %
Strongly agree/Agree502258515553735038

One reason for these lukewarm feelings might be the so-called ’return on investment’ that voters experience. This is illustrated by the reactions to the following statement: “I feel that we are paying a lot of tax, but do not get our money’s worth in terms of service delivery from the government”. Six in every ten voters (62%) agreed with this statement and only 12% disagreed:

Voters %
Strongly agree30
Agree32
Niether agree nor disagree23
Disagree8
Strongly disagree4
Don’t Know/refused3

Voters of all three the biggest political parties agree that they pay too much for what they receive:

ANC 59%

DA 68%

EFF 68%

Although all South Africans feel the economic pinch, about a third (35%) of voters say that they think their families will be better off in a year’s time. The youth especially (18-24 years old) are fairly optimistic: 42% of them think that they will be better off in a year’s time, while 21% of those older than 50 think that they will be worse off in a year’s time:

And how do you think your family’s lives will be in a year’s time?Voters %
Better off than today35
About the same48
Worse off than today17

Technical detail

A total of 3,730 personal face-to-face interviews were conducted with randomly selected adult South Africans. The interviews were done in the homes and home languages of respondents.  Trained quantitative fieldworkers from all population groups were responsible for the interviewing, which took place from 20 February to 28 March 2014.  This methodology ensured that the results are representative of the views of the universe and that findings can be weighted and projected to the universe – i.e. South Africans 18 years and older.

Interviews were done using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and all results were collated and analysed in an aggregate format to protect the identity and confidentiality of respondents.

All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for the sample as a whole at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of 1,67%.  When analysing the results for smaller parties or overall Provincial party share in particular on an individual party basis the margin of error will be higher.

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[1] Please note that this analysis is based on what people said themselves, i.e. not on modelling or specific definitions of “unemployment”.

[2] Ipsos tests the government performance on 25 policy areas every six months.

[3] 1% chose the “Don’t know” option as answer to this question.

[4] 2% chose the “Don’t know” option as answer to this question.

[5] The full results to this question are:

Strongly agree 21%;

Agree 32%;

Neither agree nor disagree 25%;

Disagree 12%;

Strongly  disagree 8%;

Don’t know 2%

[6] These questions were asked in an open-ended way, i.e. respondents could mention whatever they wanted and responses were coded afterwards.

[7] In the following tables only results of 5% and more are shown.

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